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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 9 at the 60

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(5:54) (Punt formation) 8-R.Sanchez punts 51 yards to DEN 9, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 11-D.Spencer to DEN 11 for 2 yards (46-L.Rhodes).

The Three Options

GO -0.88 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.97 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 60, worth -3.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 19, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model