Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 12 at the 65

New York Jets 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 13

What Actually Happened

(12:03) 4-L.Edwards punts 56 yards to JAX 9, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 24-T.Ervin to JAX 22 for 13 yards (51-B.Copeland; 15-J.Bellamy). PENALTY on JAX-29-J.Robinson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 5 yards, enforced at JAX 10.

The Three Options

GO -2.12 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.43 EP
73% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 65, worth -3.78 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model