4TH&DATA
EN ES
Home
NYJ Away

New York Jets

1-6 HC Adam Gase
@
JAX Home

Jacksonville Jaguars

4-4 HC Doug Marrone
Sunday 2019-10-27 · 13:00 ET TIAA Bank Stadium, Jacksonville US ☀️ Clear Spread 7.0 O/U 39.5

Win Probability

NYJ
24.7%
JAX
75.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: strong edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • NYJ offense: -0.317 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • JAX offense: -0.084 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • Sam Darnold (NYJ): -0.075 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • JAX defense: +0.010 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (13th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

NYJ 16 9–23
–
JAX 25 18–32
Projected margin: JAX by 9 Projected total: 41

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 8

NYJ

Kelvin Beachum T Out Ankle
Trenton Cannon RB Out Foot
Albert McClellan LB Out Concussion
C.J. Mosley LB Out Groin
Kelechi Osemele G Doubtful Shoulder
Christopher Herndon TE Doubtful Hamstring
Neville Hewitt LB Doubtful Neck
Henry Anderson DE Questionable Shoulder
Braxton Berrios WR Questionable Hamstring
Trumaine Johnson CB Questionable Ankle

JAX

Najee Goode LB Out Toe
Leon Jacobs LB Out Hamstring
Quincy Williams LB Out Hamstring
Dede Westbrook WR Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYJ 15
–
JAX 29

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:43 TD JAX (12:43) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew II pass short middle to 84-K.Cole for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 0 – JAX 6
  • Q1 05:01 TD NYJ (5:01) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 84-R.Griffin for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 6 – JAX 6
  • Q1 01:24 TD JAX (1:24) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew II pass deep middle to 18-C.Conley for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 7 – JAX 12
  • Q2 03:00 FG JAX (3:00) 4-J.Lambo 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke. NYJ 7 – JAX 16
  • Q2 00:16 FG JAX (:16) 4-J.Lambo 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke. NYJ 7 – JAX 19
  • Q3 02:15 FG JAX (2:15) 4-J.Lambo 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke. NYJ 7 – JAX 22
  • Q4 13:13 TD NYJ (13:13) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 84-R.Griffin for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 13 – JAX 22
  • Q4 04:22 TD JAX (4:22) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew II pass short right to 17-D.Chark Jr. for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 15 – JAX 28

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 47
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 30%

    (7:26) 29-B.Powell up the middle to JAX 45 for 2 yards (95-A.Jones; 58-A.Calitro).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 JAX 4th & 17 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (2:45) 9-L.Cooke punts 36 yards to 50, Center-46-M.Orzech, downed by JAX-26-J.Wilson.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 12 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (12:03) 4-L.Edwards punts 56 yards to JAX 9, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 24-T.Ervin to JAX 22 for 13 yards (51-B.Copeland; 15-J.Bellamy). PENALTY on JAX-29-J.Robinson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 5 yards, enforced at JAX 10.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 JAX 4th & 11 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 96%

    (3:00) 4-J.Lambo 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 20 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22%

    (2:00) 4-L.Edwards punts 47 yards to JAX 38, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 12-D.Westbrook to JAX 37 for -1 yards (51-B.Copeland). FUMBLES (51-B.Copeland), and recovers at JAX 36. 12-D.Westbrook to JAX 36 for no gain (41-M.Farley).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 JAX 4th & 10 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 83%

    (:16) 4-J.Lambo 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 12 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (10:51) 4-L.Edwards punts 53 yards to JAX 9, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 24-T.Ervin MUFFS catch, recovered by JAX-84-K.Cole at JAX 21. 84-K.Cole to JAX 21 for no gain (84-R.Griffin).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 JAX 4th & 13 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (6:59) 9-L.Cooke punts 39 yards to NYJ 33, Center-46-M.Orzech, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 13 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (5:26) 4-L.Edwards punts 42 yards to JAX 28, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 24-T.Ervin to JAX 30 for 2 yards (45-R.Miles).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 JAX 4th & 6 at the 6
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 98%

    (2:15) 4-J.Lambo 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 JAX 4th & 4 at the 45
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 35%

    (10:20) 9-L.Cooke punts 37 yards to NYJ 8, Center-46-M.Orzech, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 JAX 4th & 16 at the 64 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (2:57) 9-L.Cooke punts 41 yards to NYJ 23, Center-46-M.Orzech, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 73 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (2:27) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete deep left to 82-J.Crowder.

    See the full breakdown →