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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 11 at the 11

Jacksonville Jaguars 13 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(3:00) 4-J.Lambo 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +1.35 EP
  • 26% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.95 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP
KICK +1.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 22, worth -0.71 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model