Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 20 at the 85

New York Jets 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 16

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 4-L.Edwards punts 47 yards to JAX 38, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 12-D.Westbrook to JAX 37 for -1 yards (51-B.Copeland). FUMBLES (51-B.Copeland), and recovers at JAX 36. 12-D.Westbrook to JAX 36 for no gain (41-M.Farley).

The Three Options

GO -3.56 EP

22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.47 EP
78% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 85, worth -5.00 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model