4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 12 at the 62

New York Jets 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 19

What Actually Happened

(10:51) 4-L.Edwards punts 53 yards to JAX 9, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 24-T.Ervin MUFFS catch, recovered by JAX-84-K.Cole at JAX 21. 84-K.Cole to JAX 21 for no gain (84-R.Griffin).

The Three Options

GO -1.83 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.74 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 62, worth -3.47 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 21, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model