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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 45

Jacksonville Jaguars 22 – New York Jets 15

What Actually Happened

(10:20) 9-L.Cooke punts 37 yards to NYJ 8, Center-46-M.Orzech, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.88 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 45, worth -2.29 EP
KICK -1.16 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.64 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 12, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP