Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 17 at the 86

Jacksonville Jaguars 6 – New York Jets 7

(2:45) 9-L.Cooke punts 36 yards to 50, Center-46-M.Orzech, downed by JAX-26-J.Wilson.

The Three Options

GO -3.07 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.72 EP
72% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 86, worth -4.93 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model