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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 9 at the 44

Philadelphia Eagles 3 – Buffalo Bills 7

What Actually Happened

(9:44) 1-C.Johnston punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-45-R.Lovato, Touchback. Kick rolled into end zone.

The Three Options

GO -0.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.58 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 44, worth -2.55 EP
KICK -1.67 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.96 EP
PUNT -0.66 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 12, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model