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Philadelphia Eagles

HC Doug Pederson
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Buffalo Bills

HC Sean McDermott
Sunday 2019-10-27 · 13:00 New Era Field, Orchard Park US 🌧 Rain Spread 1.0 O/U 39.5

Win Probability

PHI
41.6%
BUF
58.4%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • BUF defense: -0.173 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • BUF offense: -0.062 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • Josh Allen (BUF): -0.044 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • Wind 23 mph
  • PHI offense: -0.026 EPA/play over its last 8 games (19th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

PHI 19
–
BUF 22
Projected margin: BUF by 3 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

PHI

Nigel Bradham LB Out Ankle
DeSean Jackson WR Out Abdomen
Timmy Jernigan DT Out Foot
Jason Peters T Out Knee
Darren Sproles RB Out Quadricep
Avonte Maddox CB Out Concussion

BUF

Kurt Coleman S Questionable Hamstring
Kevin Johnson CB Questionable Neck
Matt Milano LB Questionable Hamstring
Corey Thompson LB Questionable Ankle
Duke Williams WR Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PHI 31
–
BUF 13

Prediction missed by 21 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 03:42 FG PHI (3:42) 4-J.Elliott 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston. PHI 3 – BUF 0
  • Q2 14:54 TD BUF (14:54) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 10-C.Beasley for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at PHI 4, crossing to right. PHI 3 – BUF 6
  • Q2 00:30 TD PHI (:30) 11-C.Wentz pass short middle to 88-D.Goedert for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught in end zone, 3 yds. deep. PHI 9 – BUF 7
  • Q3 14:14 TD PHI (14:14) (Shotgun) 26-M.Sanders up the middle for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 17 – BUF 7
  • Q3 09:44 TD BUF (9:44) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 26-D.Singletary for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Flare pass, caught at PHI 29. PHI 17 – BUF 13
  • Q3 05:43 TD PHI (5:43) 35-B.Scott up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 23 – BUF 13
  • Q4 06:17 TD PHI (6:17) 24-J.Howard up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 30 – BUF 13

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 12 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (13:04) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 58 yards to PHI 19, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-32-S.Perry.

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 4 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (10:18) 1-C.Johnston punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-45-R.Lovato, Touchback. Kick into end zone.

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 1 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.99 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (8:24) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 44 yards to PHI 27, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-29-K.Johnson.

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 5 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 89%

    (3:42) 4-J.Elliott 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 9 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 29%

    (9:44) 1-C.Johnston punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-45-R.Lovato, Touchback. Kick rolled into end zone.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 6 at the 45
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 26%

    (6:09) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Touchback. Kick bounced into end zone.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 4 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (2:35) 1-C.Johnston punts 40 yards to BUF 20, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 18-A.Roberts.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (4:23) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 35 yards to PHI 34, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 35-B.Scott to PHI 40 for 6 yards (33-S.Neal). FUMBLES (33-S.Neal), RECOVERED by BUF-51-J.Stanford at PHI 43.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 10 at the 29
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.37 EP
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 70%

    (1:38) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep middle to 15-J.Brown (21-R.Darby). Receiver and coverage at PHI 6, crossing from left.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 17 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (15:00) 1-C.Johnston punts 40 yards to BUF 38, Center-45-R.Lovato, out of bounds.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 10 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (14:37) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 45 yards to PHI 17, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds. Penalty on PHI-16-M.Hollins, Running Into the Kicker, declined.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 1 at the 21 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 86%

    (2:43) 35-B.Scott left guard to BUF 22 for -1 yards (29-K.Johnson; 49-T.Edmunds).

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 4 at the 72 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (2:09) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right to 10-C.Beasley. Receiver near sideline at BUF 35.