Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 4 at the 60

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

(10:18) 1-C.Johnston punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-45-R.Lovato, Touchback. Kick into end zone.

The Three Options

GO -1.05 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +1.97 EP
54% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 60, worth -3.62 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model