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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 10 at the 29

Buffalo Bills 13 – Philadelphia Eagles 24

What Actually Happened

(1:38) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep middle to 15-J.Brown (21-R.Darby). Receiver and coverage at PHI 6, crossing from left.

The Three Options

GO +0.57 EP
What Happened
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.81 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 29, worth -1.18 EP
KICK +0.94 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 39, worth -1.92 EP
PUNT +0.08 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth +0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.37 EP