Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 17 at the 78

Philadelphia Eagles 24 – Buffalo Bills 13

(15:00) 1-C.Johnston punts 40 yards to BUF 38, Center-45-R.Lovato, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.85 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.87 EP
74% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 78, worth -4.51 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model