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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 4 at the 72

Buffalo Bills 13 – Philadelphia Eagles 31

What Actually Happened

(2:09) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right to 10-C.Beasley. Receiver near sideline at BUF 35.

The Three Options

GO -0.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.90 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 72, worth -1.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -0.54 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 30, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model