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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 1 at the 66

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Seattle Seahawks 10

What Actually Happened

(10:26) 8-M.Schaub pass short right to 87-J.Graham to ATL 45 for 11 yards (54-B.Wagner; 56-M.Kendricks).

The Three Options

GO +0.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.13 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 66, worth -3.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.78 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 24, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model