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Seattle Seahawks

HC Pete Carroll
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ATL Home

Atlanta Falcons

HC Dan Quinn
Sunday 2019-10-27 · 13:00 Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta US 🌧 Rain Spread -7.5 O/U 48.5

Win Probability

SEA
56.4%
ATL
43.6%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ATL defense: +0.214 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • QB edge to SEA: Matt Schaub (ATL) -0.056 vs Russell Wilson (SEA) +0.156 EPA/dropback (ATL starting Matt Schaub in place of Matt Ryan)
  • ATL offense: +0.059 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • SEA offense: +0.025 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

SEA 27
–
ATL 23
Projected margin: SEA by 4 Projected total: 50

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

SEA

Delano Hill S Out Elbow
Quinton Jefferson DT Out Oblique
Germain Ifedi T Questionable Knee
Duane Brown T Questionable Biceps
Ezekiel Ansah DE Questionable Ankle
Quandre Diggs S Questionable Hamstring
Tre Flowers CB Questionable Neck
Bradley McDougald S Questionable Back

ATL

James Carpenter G Out Knee
Ito Smith RB Out Concussion
Desmond Trufant CB Out Toe
Grady Jarrett DT Questionable Abdomen
Matt Ryan QB Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SEA 27
–
ATL 20

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:22 FG SEA (11:22) 5-J.Myers 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SEA 3 – ATL 0
  • Q2 11:51 TD SEA (11:51) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle to 14-DK.Metcalf for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 9 – ATL 0
  • Q2 04:51 TD SEA (4:51) 32-C.Carson right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 16 – ATL 0
  • Q2 00:33 TD SEA (:33) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 14-DK.Metcalf for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 23 – ATL 0
  • Q3 11:02 TD ATL (11:02) 23-B.Hill left end for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 24 – ATL 6
  • Q3 03:30 FG ATL (3:30) 3-M.Bryant 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-K.Redfern. SEA 24 – ATL 11
  • Q4 05:58 FG SEA (5:58) 5-J.Myers 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SEA 27 – ATL 11
  • Q4 03:12 TD ATL (3:12) 74-T.Sambrailo reported in as eligible. 8-M.Schaub pass short right to 81-A.Hooper for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 27 – ATL 17
  • Q4 01:21 FG ATL (1:21) 3-M.Bryant 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-K.Redfern. SEA 27 – ATL 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 9 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 86%

    (11:22) 5-J.Myers 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 5 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (8:10) 9-K.Redfern punts 36 yards to SEA 26, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 11 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (5:22) 4-M.Dickson punts 55 yards to ATL 7, Center-69-T.Ott. 38-K.Barner to ATL 10 for 3 yards (44-N.Bellore).

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 1 at the 33
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.13 EP
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 70%

    (15:00) 3-M.Bryant 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-K.Redfern.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (10:26) 8-M.Schaub pass short right to 87-J.Graham to ATL 45 for 11 yards (54-B.Wagner; 56-M.Kendricks).

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 10 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 65%

    (2:33) 3-M.Bryant 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-K.Redfern.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 20 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (8:48) 4-M.Dickson punts 55 yards to ATL 31, Center-69-T.Ott. 38-K.Barner to ATL 37 for 6 yards (48-J.Hollister; 23-N.Thorpe).

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 16 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 78%

    (3:30) 3-M.Bryant 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-K.Redfern.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (1:22) 4-M.Dickson punts 58 yards to ATL 15, Center-69-T.Ott. 38-K.Barner to ATL 14 for -1 yards (57-C.Barton; 28-U.Amadi).

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 9 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 62%

    (5:58) 5-J.Myers 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 6 at the 45 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 39%

    (2:49) 4-M.Dickson punts 31 yards to ATL 14, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by SEA-28-U.Amadi.