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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 10 at the 35

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Seattle Seahawks 17

What Actually Happened

(2:33) 3-M.Bryant 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-K.Redfern.

The Three Options

GO +0.42 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.22 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 35, worth -1.37 EP
KICK +0.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 45, worth -1.84 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model