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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 9 at the 24

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(11:22) 5-J.Myers 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +0.75 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.89 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24, worth -1.35 EP
KICK +0.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.42 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 34, worth -2.20 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model