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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 16 at the 29

Atlanta Falcons 8 – Seattle Seahawks 24

What Actually Happened

(3:30) 3-M.Bryant 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-K.Redfern.

The Three Options

GO +0.25 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.18 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 29, worth -1.39 EP
KICK +0.99 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 77% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 39, worth -2.09 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model