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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 8 at the 73

Seattle Seahawks 24 – Atlanta Falcons 11

What Actually Happened

(1:22) 4-M.Dickson punts 58 yards to ATL 15, Center-69-T.Ott. 38-K.Barner to ATL 14 for -1 yards (57-C.Barton; 28-U.Amadi).

The Three Options

GO -1.79 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.68 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 73, worth -4.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 31, worth -1.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model