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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 9 at the 36

Seattle Seahawks 24 – Atlanta Falcons 11

What Actually Happened

(5:58) 5-J.Myers 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +0.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.18 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 36, worth -1.37 EP
KICK +0.50 EP
What Happened
  • 61% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 46, worth -2.09 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model