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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 6 at the 45

Seattle Seahawks 27 – Atlanta Falcons 17

What Actually Happened

(2:49) 4-M.Dickson punts 31 yards to ATL 14, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by SEA-28-U.Amadi.

The Three Options

GO -0.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +1.19 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 45, worth -2.15 EP
KICK -1.03 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.25 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.36 EP
PUNT -1.03 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 12, worth -1.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP