Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 11 at the 62

Seattle Seahawks 3 – Atlanta Falcons 0

(5:22) 4-M.Dickson punts 55 yards to ATL 7, Center-69-T.Ott. 38-K.Barner to ATL 10 for 3 yards (44-N.Bellore).

The Three Options

GO -1.59 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.22 EP
65% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 62, worth -3.64 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model