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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 3 at the 56

Los Angeles Chargers 6 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(9:57) 1-T.Long punts 38 yards to GB 18, Center-45-C.Mazza. 27-T.Smith to GB 18 for no gain (34-D.Watt).

The Three Options

GO +0.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.92 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 56, worth -2.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.49 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 17, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP