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Green Bay Packers

HC Matt LaFleur
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Los Angeles Chargers

HC Anthony Lynn
Sunday 2019-11-03 · 16:25 StubHub Center, Carson US ☀️ Clear Spread -4.0 O/U 50.0

Win Probability

GB
54.6%
LAC
45.4%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • GB offense: +0.136 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • Aaron Rodgers (GB): +0.175 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • LAC defense: +0.041 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (21st in the league)

Predicted Final Score

GB 26
–
LAC 23
Projected margin: GB by 3 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 9

GB

Davante Adams WR Questionable Toe
Robert Tonyan TE Questionable Hip

LAC

Cortez Broughton DT Out Illness
Roderic Teamer S Doubtful Groin
Justin Jones DT Doubtful Shoulder
Brandon Mebane DT Doubtful Knee
Damion Square DT Questionable Back
Geremy Davis WR Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

GB 11
–
LAC 26

Prediction missed by 18 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:00 FG LAC (7:00) 4-M.Badgley 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-C.Mazza, Holder-1-T.Long. GB 0 – LAC 3
  • Q1 01:09 FG LAC (1:09) 4-M.Badgley 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-C.Mazza, Holder-1-T.Long. GB 0 – LAC 6
  • Q2 00:05 FG LAC (:05) 4-M.Badgley 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-C.Mazza, Holder-1-T.Long. GB 0 – LAC 9
  • Q3 09:46 FG LAC (9:46) 4-M.Badgley 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-C.Mazza, Holder-1-T.Long. GB 0 – LAC 12
  • Q3 03:59 TD LAC (3:59) 25-M.Gordon left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. GB 0 – LAC 18
  • Q3 00:50 FG GB (:50) 2-M.Crosby 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott. GB 3 – LAC 19
  • Q4 10:36 TD LAC (10:36) 25-M.Gordon left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. GB 3 – LAC 25
  • Q4 06:27 TD GB (6:27) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 30-J.Williams for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 9 – LAC 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 11 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 96%

    (7:00) 4-M.Badgley 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-C.Mazza, Holder-1-T.Long.

  • Q1 GB 4th & 17 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (4:28) 6-J.Scott punts 42 yards to LAC 40, Center-43-H.Bradley. 20-D.King to LAC 41 for 1 yard (25-W.Redmond; 45-D.Vitale).

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 19 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 89%

    (1:09) 4-M.Badgley 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-C.Mazza, Holder-1-T.Long.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 17 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (12:47) 6-J.Scott punts 49 yards to LAC 16, Center-43-H.Bradley, out of bounds.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 3 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP
    p(convert) 53%

    (9:57) 1-T.Long punts 38 yards to GB 18, Center-45-C.Mazza. 27-T.Smith to GB 18 for no gain (34-D.Watt).

  • Q2 GB 4th & 7 at the 45
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 43%

    (4:29) 6-J.Scott punts 37 yards to LAC 8, Center-43-H.Bradley, fair catch by 20-D.King.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 8 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (13:28) 6-J.Scott punts 52 yards to LAC 23, Center-43-H.Bradley. 20-D.King to LAC 23 for no gain (25-W.Redmond).

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 3 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 86%

    (9:46) 4-M.Badgley 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-C.Mazza, Holder-1-T.Long.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 16 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (7:23) 6-J.Scott punts 8 yards to GB 27, Center-43-H.Bradley, out of bounds.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 13 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 66%

    (:50) 2-M.Crosby 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 99%

    (10:36) 25-M.Gordon left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 4 at the 26 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 84%

    (2:15) 4-M.Badgley 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-45-C.Mazza, Holder-1-T.Long.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 5 at the 41 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.40 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 53%

    (1:16) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep left to 17-D.Adams.