4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 7 at the 45

Green Bay Packers 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 6

What Actually Happened

(4:29) 6-J.Scott punts 37 yards to LAC 8, Center-43-H.Bradley, fair catch by 20-D.King.

The Three Options

GO -0.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.24 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 45, worth -2.47 EP
KICK -0.91 EP
  • 43% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.87 EP
PUNT -0.62 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP