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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 16 at the 81

Green Bay Packers 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 12

What Actually Happened

(7:23) 6-J.Scott punts 8 yards to GB 27, Center-43-H.Bradley, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.90 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.46 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 81, worth -4.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -2.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 38, worth -2.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model