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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 4 at the 26

Los Angeles Chargers 26 – Green Bay Packers 11

What Actually Happened

(2:15) 4-M.Badgley 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-45-C.Mazza, Holder-1-T.Long.

The Three Options

GO -0.12 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +1.98 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26, worth -1.79 EP
KICK +0.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.21 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 36, worth -2.12 EP
PUNT -1.00 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model