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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 17 at the 82

Green Bay Packers 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 3

What Actually Happened

(4:28) 6-J.Scott punts 42 yards to LAC 40, Center-43-H.Bradley. 20-D.King to LAC 41 for 1 yard (25-W.Redmond; 45-D.Vitale).

The Three Options

GO -3.12 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.03 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 82, worth -4.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -2.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 40, worth -2.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model