4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 19 at the 22

Los Angeles Chargers 3 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(1:09) 4-M.Badgley 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-C.Mazza, Holder-1-T.Long.

The Three Options

GO +1.19 EP
  • 21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.20 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.17 EP
KICK +2.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.64 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 32, worth -0.86 EP
PUNT +0.62 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model