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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 2 at the 35

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Indianapolis Colts 10

What Actually Happened

(6:07) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass short middle to 19-J.Smith-Schuster to IND 35 for no gain (93-J.Sheard).

The Three Options

GO +1.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.85 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 35, worth -1.45 EP
KICK +0.43 EP
  • 62% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 45, worth -2.12 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model