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Indianapolis Colts

HC Frank Reich
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Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
Sunday 2019-11-03 · 13:00 Heinz Field, Pittsburgh US ☀️ Clear Spread 1.0 O/U 39.5

Win Probability

IND
43.9%
PIT
56.1%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • PIT defense: -0.107 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • IND offense: +0.047 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • PIT offense: -0.062 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • IND defense: +0.072 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • Jacoby Brissett (IND): -0.005 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

IND 21
–
PIT 22
Projected margin: PIT by 1 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 9

IND

T.Y. Hilton WR Out Calf
Pierre Desir CB Doubtful Hamstring
Malik Hooker S Questionable Knee
Justin Houston DE Questionable Calf

PIT

Ramon Foster G Out Concussion
Benny Snell RB Out Knee
James Conner RB Doubtful Shoulder
Roosevelt Nix RB Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

IND 24
–
PIT 26

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:12 FG IND (7:12) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Vinatieri 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. IND 3 – PIT 0
  • Q1 01:01 FG PIT (1:01) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry. IND 3 – PIT 3
  • Q2 12:02 TD IND (12:02) (Shotgun) 2-B.Hoyer pass short middle to 84-J.Doyle for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 9 – PIT 3
  • Q2 02:36 TD PIT (2:36) (Shotgun) 2-B.Hoyer pass deep middle intended for 84-J.Doyle INTERCEPTED by 39-M.Fitzpatrick [97-C.Heyward] at PIT 4. 39-M.Fitzpatrick for 96 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 10 – PIT 9
  • Q2 00:47 TD IND (:47) (Shotgun) 2-B.Hoyer pass short middle to 14-Z.Pascal for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 16 – PIT 10
  • Q2 00:00 FG PIT (:00) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry. IND 16 – PIT 13
  • Q3 05:30 TD PIT (5:30) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass short right to 89-V.McDonald for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 16 – PIT 19
  • Q3 01:12 SAF IND (1:12) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph sacked at PIT -5 for -13 yards (99-J.Houston). FUMBLES (99-J.Houston) [99-J.Houston], recovered by PIT-78-A.Villanueva at PIT -5. 78-A.Villanueva tackled in End Zone, SAFETY (99-J.Houston). IND 18 – PIT 20
  • Q4 15:00 FG PIT (15:00) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry. IND 18 – PIT 23
  • Q4 08:47 TD IND (8:47) (Shotgun) 2-B.Hoyer pass short right to 80-C.Rogers for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 24 – PIT 23
  • Q4 06:39 FG PIT (6:39) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry. IND 24 – PIT 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 IND 4th & 7 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 97%

    (7:12) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Vinatieri 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.91 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 98%

    (1:01) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 2 at the 35
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 62%

    (6:07) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass short middle to 19-J.Smith-Schuster to IND 35 for no gain (93-J.Sheard).

  • Q3 IND 4th & 2 at the 46
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 32%

    (12:40) (Shotgun) 25-M.Mack up the middle to PIT 41 for 5 yards (56-A.Chickillo).

  • Q3 IND 4th & 4 at the 35
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 62%

    (10:49) (Shotgun) 2-B.Hoyer sacked at PIT 43 for -8 yards (48-B.Dupree). FUMBLES (48-B.Dupree) [48-B.Dupree], RECOVERED by PIT-48-B.Dupree at PIT 46. 48-B.Dupree to PIT 46 for no gain (74-A.Castonzo).

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 8 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 94%

    (15:00) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 5 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (13:29) (Punt formation) 8-R.Sanchez punts 43 yards to PIT 25, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 10-R.Switzer.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 2 at the 4
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 98%

    (8:47) (Shotgun) 2-B.Hoyer pass short right to 80-C.Rogers for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 8 at the 8
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 97%

    (6:39) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 16 at the 64 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (4:07) (Punt formation) 8-R.Sanchez punts 44 yards to PIT 20, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 10-R.Switzer to PIT 20 for no gain (58-B.Okereke). PENALTY on IND-58-B.Okereke, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at PIT 20.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 8 at the 63 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (2:35) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 48 yards to IND 15, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 4 at the 25 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 83%

    (1:14) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Vinatieri 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.