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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 8 at the 15

Pittsburgh Steelers 20 – Indianapolis Colts 18

What Actually Happened

(15:00) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +1.53 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.54 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 15, worth -0.31 EP
KICK +1.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25, worth -0.83 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model