Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 5 at the 68

Indianapolis Colts 18 – Pittsburgh Steelers 23

(13:29) (Punt formation) 8-R.Sanchez punts 43 yards to PIT 25, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 10-R.Switzer.

The Three Options

GO -1.28 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.79 EP
55% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 68, worth -3.83 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model