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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 2 at the 4

Indianapolis Colts 18 – Pittsburgh Steelers 23

What Actually Happened

(8:47) (Shotgun) 2-B.Hoyer pass short right to 80-C.Rogers for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.15 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 4, worth +0.14 EP
KICK +1.70 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.99 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model