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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 8 at the 63

Pittsburgh Steelers 26 – Indianapolis Colts 24

What Actually Happened

(2:35) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 48 yards to IND 15, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

The Three Options

GO -1.14 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.30 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 63, worth -2.58 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 21, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model