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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 4 at the 25

Indianapolis Colts 24 – Pittsburgh Steelers 26

What Actually Happened

(1:14) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Vinatieri 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +0.27 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +1.52 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25, worth -0.70 EP
KICK +1.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.26 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 35, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model