4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 71

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(:52) 2-D.Colquitt punts 42 yards to MIN 29, Center-41-J.Winchester. 21-M.Hughes to MIN 36 for 7 yards (44-D.O'Daniel; 50-D.Lee).

The Three Options

GO +0.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.67 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 71, worth -3.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.03 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 29, worth -1.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.24 EP