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Minnesota Vikings

6-3 HC Mike Zimmer
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Kansas City Chiefs

6-3 HC Andy Reid
Sunday 2019-11-03 · 13:00 ET Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City US 💨 Windy Spread -5.5 O/U 46.0

Win Probability

MIN
51.8%
KC
48.2%
💨 Windy

Confidence: coin flip Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • MIN offense: +0.148 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • KC offense: +0.158 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • KC defense: +0.040 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
  • MIN on 3 more days rest than KC
  • Kirk Cousins (MIN): +0.114 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • Wind 15 mph

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

MIN 23 16–30
–
KC 21 14–28
Projected margin: MIN by 2 Projected total: 44

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 9

MIN

Adam Thielen WR Questionable Hamstring

KC

Laurent Duvernay-Tardif G Out Ankle
Eric Fisher T Out Groin
Alex Okafor DE Out Ankle
Chris Jones DT Questionable Groin
Frank Clark DE Questionable Neck
Kendall Fuller CB Questionable Thumb
Patrick Mahomes QB Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIN 23
–
KC 26

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:28 TD KC (8:28) 8-M.Moore pass deep right to 10-T.Hill for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN [97-E.Griffen]. MIN 0 – KC 6
  • Q1 02:54 TD MIN (2:54) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 81-O.Johnson for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 6 – KC 7
  • Q2 04:38 FG KC (4:38) 7-H.Butker 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. MIN 7 – KC 10
  • Q2 00:09 FG MIN (:09) 5-D.Bailey 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-A.Cutting, Holder-2-B.Colquitt. MIN 10 – KC 10
  • Q3 11:57 TD MIN (11:57) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 31-A.Abdullah for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 16 – KC 10
  • Q3 06:25 TD KC (6:25) 26-Dam.Williams up the middle for 91 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 16 – KC 16
  • Q3 00:35 FG KC (:35) 7-H.Butker 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. MIN 16 – KC 20
  • Q4 11:03 TD MIN (11:03) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 82-K.Rudolph for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 22 – KC 20
  • Q4 02:36 FG KC (2:36) 7-H.Butker 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. MIN 23 – KC 23
  • Q4 00:03 FG KC (:03) 7-H.Butker 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. MIN 23 – KC 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (14:44) 2-B.Colquitt punts 47 yards to KC 28, Center-58-A.Cutting, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 KC 4th & 3 at the 65
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (13:24) 2-D.Colquitt punts 56 yards to MIN 9, Center-41-J.Winchester. 21-M.Hughes to MIN 18 for 9 yards (13-B.Pringle; 44-D.O'Daniel).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 MIN 4th & 1 at the 73
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.22 EP
    p(convert) 75%

    (11:45) 2-B.Colquitt punts 42 yards to KC 31, Center-58-A.Cutting. 17-M.Hardman to KC 33 for 2 yards (31-A.Abdullah).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 KC 4th & 1 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.24 EP
    p(convert) 74%

    (:52) 2-D.Colquitt punts 42 yards to MIN 29, Center-41-J.Winchester. 21-M.Hughes to MIN 36 for 7 yards (44-D.O'Daniel; 50-D.Lee).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 MIN 4th & 1 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.81 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (13:35) 2-B.Colquitt punts 46 yards to KC 9, Center-58-A.Cutting, fair catch by 17-M.Hardman.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 KC 4th & 1 at the 7
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 97%

    (6:13) (Shotgun) 26-Dam.Williams left end to MIN 5 for 2 yards (55-A.Barr).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 KC 4th & 6 at the 6
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 98%

    (4:38) 7-H.Butker 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 MIN 4th & 15 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (3:06) 2-B.Colquitt punts 54 yards to KC 26, Center-58-A.Cutting, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 KC 4th & 16 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (1:54) 2-D.Colquitt punts 58 yards to MIN 22, Center-41-J.Winchester. 21-M.Hughes to MIN 32 for 10 yards (50-D.Lee).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 MIN 4th & 1 at the 15
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 93%

    (:29) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 84-I.Smith pushed ob at KC 11 for 4 yards (35-C.Ward).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 MIN 4th & 10 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 96%

    (:09) 5-D.Bailey 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-A.Cutting, Holder-2-B.Colquitt.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 KC 4th & 2 at the 64
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP
    p(convert) 63%

    (10:19) 2-D.Colquitt punts 47 yards to MIN 17, Center-41-J.Winchester. 21-M.Hughes to MIN 20 for 3 yards (41-J.Winchester).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 MIN 4th & 9 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 32%

    (7:11) 2-B.Colquitt punts 42 yards to KC 3, Center-58-A.Cutting, downed by MIN-27-J.Kearse.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 MIN 4th & 14 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (3:39) 2-B.Colquitt punts 49 yards to KC 19, Center-58-A.Cutting. 17-M.Hardman to KC 34 for 15 yards (23-M.Boone; 42-B.Gedeon).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 KC 4th & 12 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 78%

    (:35) 7-H.Butker 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 MIN 4th & 10 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (6:41) 2-B.Colquitt punts 46 yards to KC 26, Center-58-A.Cutting, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 MIN 4th & 17 at the 82 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (1:55) 2-B.Colquitt punts 27 yards to MIN 45, Center-58-A.Cutting, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →