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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 55

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

What Actually Happened

(13:35) 2-B.Colquitt punts 46 yards to KC 9, Center-58-A.Cutting, fair catch by 17-M.Hardman.

The Three Options

GO +0.90 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.41 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 55, worth -3.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.92 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 16, worth -0.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.81 EP