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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 10 at the 75

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(14:44) 2-B.Colquitt punts 47 yards to KC 28, Center-58-A.Cutting, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.30 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.33 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 75, worth -4.56 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -2.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 32, worth -2.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model