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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 7

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(6:13) (Shotgun) 26-Dam.Williams left end to MIN 5 for 2 yards (55-A.Barr).

The Three Options

GO +3.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.42 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 7, worth -0.19 EP
KICK +1.84 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21, worth -0.82 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model