4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 15 at the 80

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 10

What Actually Happened

(3:06) 2-B.Colquitt punts 54 yards to KC 26, Center-58-A.Cutting, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.62 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.44 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 80, worth -4.59 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -2.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 37, worth -2.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model