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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 16 at the 80

Kansas City Chiefs 10 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(1:54) 2-D.Colquitt punts 58 yards to MIN 22, Center-41-J.Winchester. 21-M.Hughes to MIN 32 for 10 yards (50-D.Lee).

The Three Options

GO -2.44 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.84 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 80, worth -4.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 37, worth -1.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model