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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 15

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 10

What Actually Happened

(:29) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 84-I.Smith pushed ob at KC 11 for 4 yards (35-C.Ward).

The Three Options

GO +2.91 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.32 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 15, worth -0.16 EP
KICK +2.38 EP
  • 93% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.57 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25, worth -0.43 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model