4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 10 at the 11

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 10

What Actually Happened

(:09) 5-D.Bailey 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-A.Cutting, Holder-2-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.61 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +5.25 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP
KICK +2.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.95 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 22, worth -0.03 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model