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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 2 at the 64

Kansas City Chiefs 10 – Minnesota Vikings 16

What Actually Happened

(10:19) 2-D.Colquitt punts 47 yards to MIN 17, Center-41-J.Winchester. 21-M.Hughes to MIN 20 for 3 yards (41-J.Winchester).

The Three Options

GO -0.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.89 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 64, worth -3.70 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 22, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP