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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 9 at the 45

Minnesota Vikings 16 – Kansas City Chiefs 10

What Actually Happened

(7:11) 2-B.Colquitt punts 42 yards to KC 3, Center-58-A.Cutting, downed by MIN-27-J.Kearse.

The Three Options

GO -0.06 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.62 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 45, worth -2.15 EP
KICK -1.14 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.65 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 12, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model