Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 14 at the 68

Minnesota Vikings 16 – Kansas City Chiefs 17

(3:39) 2-B.Colquitt punts 49 yards to KC 19, Center-58-A.Cutting. 17-M.Hardman to KC 34 for 15 yards (23-M.Boone; 42-B.Gedeon).

The Three Options

GO -1.72 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.64 EP
68% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 68, worth -3.79 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model