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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 10 at the 72

Minnesota Vikings 23 – Kansas City Chiefs 20

What Actually Happened

(6:41) 2-B.Colquitt punts 46 yards to KC 26, Center-58-A.Cutting, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.86 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.77 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 72, worth -4.08 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 30, worth -1.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model